The writer is director of Asia programmes at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies
There is now a real risk of military conflict between India and China. While the world remains preoccupied with the Covid-19 pandemic, and the US distracted by domestic politics, India and China are involved in an unprecedented military build-up along their long-disputed border.
In June, for the first time since 1967, there were serious clashes between the two armies in the Himalayan Galwan Valley. Since then, both sides have steadily increased their forces in the area, bringing in tanks, artillery and missile systems to back up tens of thousands of troops. This is no longer a localised build-up on the western border. There are credible reports of advances further east along the borders with the Indian states of Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.
In the mountainous terrain, motorised and armoured units largely move along the valley floors — more difficult now due to the summer snow melt. Yet as it becomes colder and the waters ebb, these routes will become more passable and China’s phenomenal construction capability makes the possibility of a greater escalation more likely.
Meetings between the Chinese and Indian defence ministers and their foreign ministers in the past weeks offer some hope of finding a diplomatic solution. But the possibility of a decisive breakthrough is slim. Neither country is budging from the claim that the other side is risking conflict by altering the status quo on the border and violating existing understandings on how to manage the dispute.
China’s motives are unclear: President Xi Jinping has generally pursued an assertive foreign policy and might see an opportunity to make tactical gains. But even in this context does it make sense for China to risk a war with India? China’s assertiveness has put an end to all strategic ambiguity on India’s part as it seeks a closer relationship with the US and embraces anti-China alliances such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the US, Japan and Australia. India has also signalled its resolve to decouple economically from China, banning Chinese apps and crafting a strategy to move to other suppliers.
If Mr Xi is looking for ways to shore up his domestic credibility, then the puzzle is why the conflict is getting so little play at home. Another plausible hypothesis is that China is worried about the future of Tibet, with strengthening international support for its struggle for independence. India still hosts both the Dalai Lama and Tibet’s government in exile, and China may be exerting pressure to prevent interference.
It is exactly this uncertainty that makes the situation so risky. With winter approaching, it makes little sense for China to keep tens of thousands of troops camped on high mountains with temperatures plunging 20 to 30 degrees below zero. India responded with its own troop escalation. A high stakes game is clearly afoot.
We can no longer count on old assurances to prevent conflict. In modern warfare, harsh winters and difficult physical terrain are much less of barrier than they once were. If bitter weather did not deter the Red Army’s devastating counter-attacks on advancing German troops in 1941, it will be even less of a hurdle if China were able and inclined to execute missile attacks.
The Galwan Valley incident has turned public opinion in India virulently anti-China. This will make disengagement difficult. There is a growing consensus that New Delhi must be prepared to stand up to Beijing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image will be severely dented at home if he does not craft a strong riposte. This leaves Mr Xi with two options: inflict the damage and brace for consequences or withdraw to pre-June positions and lose face.
The international context also makes the chances of a conflict more likely. It is not a coincidence that the previous major conflict between India and China, the war in 1962, occurred when the US was distracted — at that time with the Cuban missile crisis. The weeks between now and the US presidential election in November, which coincide with propitious weather for military movements on the border, will see Americans preoccupied with their own political drama and a polarised electorate.
It is no longer possible to dismiss the conflict between India and China as a skirmish. The understanding reached last week between the countries’ foreign ministers points to a pause. But it does not address the underlying issues that have pushed the countries closer to serious conflict. The American historian Barbara Tuchman is often cited as observing: “War is the unfolding of miscalculations.” The next few months might prove a test case for that hypothesis.
Pratap Bhanu Mehta, a professor at Ashoka University, also contributed
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India and China are edging towards a more serious conflict - Financial Times
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