The 49ers have proven they aren’t very good when Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t on the field.
And Garoppolo has proven he has trouble staying on the field.
Given that, the biggest news from Kyle Shanahan’s news conference Monday wasn’t his statement that he expects Garoppolo to remain the starter in 2021. Shanahan also said that last month and, again, his support Monday came with the caveat that “you can’t say anything with certainty.”
The most revealing portion of Shanahan’s back-and-forth with reporters about Garoppolo? His answer when asked this: What’s the 49ers’ plan if Garoppolo, again, isn’t on the field for long stretches in 2021?
The 49ers are very good (24-9) in games Garoppolo has started in Shanahan’s four seasons. And they are godawful (7-26) without Garoppolo.
Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have repeatedly referenced those records to highlight Garoppolo’s impact and explain why they expect him to retain his role next season.
But set aside 24-9.
And focus on 7-26.
Garoppolo’s injuries — his ACL tear in 2018 and his high ankle sprain in 2020 (he hasn’t played since Nov. 1) — have helped torpedo both seasons because the dropoff to Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard has been precipitous.
It’s true that many teams would suffer a similar fate if their starting QB went down. But the 49ers are no longer most teams: They are the defending NFC champions who appear poised to open 2021 with a quarterback who has suffered three major injuries (Garoppolo suffered a should injury with the Patriots in 2016) in his 32-start career.
As a result, the 49ers must significantly upgrade the position behind Garoppolo this offseason to prepare for a season in which their Super Bowl window could remain open.
Right, Kyle?
In response, Shanahan began by noting that signing a free-agent QB who can serve as a capable starter can be pricey. And cost is an issue since the 49ers are scheduled to devote $26.9 million in salary cap space to Garoppolo in 2021.
“Do you want to go get a starter as a backup quarterback?” Shanahan said. “Then you’ve just got to decide if you want to spend the majority of your salary cap on your first- and your second-string quarterbacks …
“You just hope you don’t lose your (starter) for a whole year. We had that in our first year playing with Jimmy, which was a torn ACL. And then these two high ankle sprains that have come. It was unfortunate. But to sit there and just say now you’re going to go out and pay for a lot of money to have a backup quarterback who plays like a starter — (that) isn’t the best answer for your team.”
At this point, however, hoping Garoppolo stays healthy in 2021 doesn’t sound like a responsible plan.
Interestingly, though, Shanahan continued by noting there was an affordable alternative to an expensive veteran: Draft a quarterback on a relatively cheap rookie contract who can upgrade the No. 2 spot.
He even cited an example. In 2017, the Chiefs’ starter was Alex Smith, who had led them to a 22-9 record as a starter the previous two seasons. Kansas City used the No. 10 pick to draft Patrick Mahomes, who supplanted Smith the next season and has become an NFL MVP and Super Bowl champion.
“That’s something that most teams do have an issue with — that second-team quarterback,” Shanahan said. “Unless they’ve drafted a guy and then had their starter from the year before. Someone like Alex and what they had with Patrick.”
That certainly wasn’t a declaration that the 49ers will draft a QB in April.
However, assuming they keep Garoppolo, that plan certainly makes sense.
Consider: The 49ers could use a first-, second- or third-round pick on the position and the rookie would presumably serve as an upgrade over Mullens or Beathard, both of whom are in the final year of their contracts.
The 49ers (6-9) currently have the No. 14 overall pick in the draft. They would miss out on the top quarterbacks at that spot, but if they view North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, Florida’s Kyle Trask or Alabama’s Mac Jones as an elite prospect it’s possible they would be available. Given their other potential draft needs, such as their secondary, offensive line and pass rush, it’s more likely the 49ers would wait a round or two to select a QB.
Shanahan repeatedly said Monday that he likes his current quarterback, who led the 49ers to the Super Bowl last season when he played every game in his only full season as a starter.
“Look at Jimmy’s record when he’s been here,” Shanahan said. “Jimmy, you can win with. He’s proven that. He’s proven he’s a starting quarterback in this league … I also think Jimmy’s going to get a lot better the more he plays.”
The 49ers were saying the same things before the season about Garoppolo.
Months later, after Garoppolo made just six starts, they can’t afford to do the same thing in 2021 when it comes to his backup.
Eric Branch covers the 49ers for The San Francisco Chronicle. Email: ebranch@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @Eric_Branch
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Garoppolo may remain 49ers’ starter in 2021, but what’s Plan B if he’s hurt again? - San Francisco Chronicle
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